Background

Understanding the scientific evidence for the human influence on climate is an essential starting point, both for establishing that there is indeed a problem to be tackled and for comprehending its risk and scale and most applicable response options.

An overwhelming body of scientific evidence indicates that the Earth’s climate is rapidly changing, predominantly as a result of increases in greenhouse gases caused by human activities. The implications of a rapidly changing climate on economies, societies and the environment have dire ramifications particularly for the African continent.

The circumstances of each country - its initial climate, socio-economic conditions, and growth prospects – will shape the scale of the social, economic and environmental effects of climate change.

Developing countries are vulnerable to the physical impacts of climate change which could amplify the existing challenges posed by tropical geography, a heavy dependence on agriculture, rapid population growth, poverty, and a limited capacity to cope with an uncertain climate ultimately posing a challenge to the long-term sustainability of development progress.

Aim

This seminar formed part of the DST initiative to provide a platform to facilitate regular climate change information sessions for the South African public to increase awareness of climate change, its impacts, and ways to respond (adapt and mitigate) them.

The aim of this initial seminar is to make available to the public information about the latest findings in the science of climate change, its implications for developing counties especially South Africa and to showcase the work that South African scientists are doing in this area.

General Objectives

• Provide an opportunity to network with and learn about the fundamental principles of climatic change from various South African scientific experts.

• Gain input from stakeholders on the proposed climate change research and development priority areas for South Africa.

Expected Outcomes

• Contribute to the improved understanding of the causes, nature, timing and consequences of climate change and its implications for South Africa and Africa.

• Identify appropriate measures to effectively engage stakeholders in the climate change discourse.
  

Overview of the Seminar

This seminar consists of three sessions aimed at disseminating information on:

• The physical science of climate change;

• The need to respond to climate change; and

• The impacts of climate change.

The talks in each of these sessions will provide an overview of the global discourse on climate change and also provide specific information for the South African context.

The recently published Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) provides the most comprehensive review of current climate change science, drawing upon the work of thousands of accredited experts.

This work will be made explicit by Prof Bruce Hewitson, University of Cape Town. Presentations by Dr Bob Scholes, Council for Scientific and Industrial Research; Dr Mathieu Rouault, University of Cape Town and Dr Willem Landman, South African Weather Service will complement this talk and also illustrate coherent changes in many aspects of the climate system other than temperature providing an overview of the latest developments in the physical science of climate change.

 Co-lead author for the Chapter on Africa in the IPCC AR4, Prof Coleen Vogel, will address the associated impacts of climatic change at the regional and global scale.

To highlight the need for sectoral responses, various specialists will discuss the vulnerability and impacts associated with the water, agricultural, biodiversity and health sectors.

Prof Roland Shulze’s presentation entitled ‘Impacts of climate change on South Africa’s water resources and agriculture’ will summarise the results of a recent Water Research Commission project that highlights the sensitivity of the hydrological system to any changes in rainfall once thresholds of initial abstractions are exceeded.

He will also provide insight into the hydrological implications of IPCC AR4 scenarios for South Africa and adaptation options. By use of a Geographic Information System (GIS), predictive species model, Dr Jane Olwoch’s presentation will illustrate the current and future distribution of an economically important tick and tick borne disease in sub-Saharan Africa. This presentation will also provide an initial analysis of the relationship between Malaria data in South Africa and climate.

Dr Gina Ziervogel's presentation ‘Vulnerable livelihoods - the need to adapt’, explores adaptation to climate impacts on livelihoods in the context of multiple stressors. Here, she demonstrates that adapting to climate change requires an understanding of the different ways in which climate impacts sectors and livelihoods at different scales so that holistic responses can be supported at both the household and municipal level.

Mr Enoch Lerato Liphoto will shed light on municipal attempts to minimize the local effects of climatic changes. This talk will also highlight the research requirements of cities for the development of appropriate local responses.

In concluding this event, Mr Rob Hounsome will facilitate a discussion on how to effectively communicate the science of climate change to various stakeholders. This dialogue will afford stakeholders an opportunity to highlight their information needs and suggest methods of future communication.

It is envisaged that this discussion will serve to inform future information sharing sessions.

For more information contact: